The $300 Billion Question A Chevron strategic planning team convened an emergency meeting January 4, hours after President Trump announced Nicolás Maduro’s capture. Their Venezuela license—expanded in October 2023 to 200,000 barrels per day—now faces radical uncertainty. If Vice President Delcy Rodríguez consolidates power, the license stays capped and sanctions persist indefinitely. If the military … Read more
Juncture Policy Brief | November 20, 2025 | 15-min read Executive Summary When Colombia’s finance minister chose a $2 billion grid financing from a private equity–backed insurer over cheaper Chinese and DFI options, the decision wasn’t about a few basis points on the coupon. It was about speed, balance sheet optics, and political timelines. The … Read more
By Juncture Policy | October 13, 2025 | Updated November 15, 2025 Dutch Economic Minister Vincent Karremans faced a choice that would have triggered international sanctions if made by a developing country leader: invoke emergency powers to seize operational control of a foreign-owned semiconductor company. On October 13, 2025, he did exactly that—taking control of … Read more
Policy Brief | Reading Time: 7 minutes Author: Walter Guevara Update (November 12, 2025) Since this analysis was published, events have validated rather than contradicted our framework. The IMF approved Argentina’s $20 billion Extended Fund Facility in April 2025 with $12 billion immediate disbursement. Mid-year reviews documented “rapid disinflation, solid economic recovery, and incipient improvements … Read more
Executive Summary While Brazil confronts democratic backsliding concerns, Argentina cycles through economic crises, and Chile faces constitutional upheaval, Uruguay maintains steady governance that approaches European institutional standards. The country’s $22,000 per capita GDP and 79.2/100 institutional quality score create a regional stability premium demonstrating the compounding returns of pragmatic governance and democratic continuity. However, small … Read more