Latin America

Two Financing Ecosystems, One Coastline: The China-West Infrastructure Trap in Latin America

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In April 2026, a senior deal team at IDB Invest hit a wall while assessing exposure across Peru’s central coast. (This vignette is a composite based on documented deal team accounts; the mechanics are actively playing out across the region.) Chancay was no longer the question it was the precedent. Inaugurated in November 2024, the … Read more

Venezuela After Maduro: The 90-Day Battle for PDVSA Control

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The $300 Billion Question A Chevron strategic planning team convened an emergency meeting January 4, hours after President Trump announced Nicolás Maduro’s capture. Their Venezuela license—expanded in October 2023 to 200,000 barrels per day—now faces radical uncertainty.  If Vice President Delcy Rodríguez consolidates power, the license stays capped and sanctions persist indefinitely. If the military … Read more

The Trump Corollary’s First Test: Why Even Milei Couldn’t Break With China

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Monroe Doctrine 2.0 Meets Economic Reality in Latin America Secretary of State Marco Rubio stared at the intelligence brief. Argentina’s Javier Milei—Trump’s ideological soulmate who campaigned on dismantling ties with Beijing—had just quietly extended Argentina’s $5 billion currency swap with China. Three days earlier, on December 5, Rubio’s own National Security Strategy had declared a … Read more

Peru’s Neo-Colonial Compact: The Minimum Viable Democracy for Capital Flows

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Peru's Neo-Colonial Compact: Democracy Optional for Capital Flows

Policy Brief By Juncture Policy ResearchOctober 12, 2025 Following the October 10, 2025 impeachment of Dina Boluarte, José Jerí was sworn in as Peru’s seventh president since 2018, facing an immediate investor relations problem at 12:47 AM. His predecessor governed with a 4% approval rating. According to Peru’s National Police, reported extortion cases rose more … Read more

Mexico’s Strategic Protectionist Gambit: A Calculated USMCA Play

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Executive Summary Mexico is betting $52 billion in trade flows and 320,000 manufacturing jobs that protectionism can become a USMCA bargaining chip. The Sheinbaum administration just imposed tariffs up to 50% on 1,463 product categories—90% targeting China—in the boldest trade move since NAFTA. This calculated policy fundamentally restructures North American trade dynamics through what we … Read more

Peru’s Education Reform Reversals: Lessons for Institutional Sustainability

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Executive Summary Peru’s decade-long educational reform cycle—from ambitious implementation (2014-2015) to recent reversals (2024-2025)—offers critical insights into the sustainability challenges facing structural reforms in emerging markets. Despite initial technical success, the collapse of supporting political coalitions has undermined transformative changes in higher education quality standards and teacher career frameworks. This case illuminates the fundamental tension … Read more

Mexico’s Strategic Protectionist Gambit: A Calculated USMCA Play

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Executive Summary Mexico is implementing its most significant protectionist shift in four decades, imposing tariffs up to 50% on 1,463 product categories worth $52 billion in annual imports. This calculated policy targets Chinese manufacturing while positioning Mexico strategically for the 2026 USMCA review—a high-stakes gambit that fundamentally restructures North American trade dynamics. Key Takeaways: Legislative … Read more

Uruguay’s Quiet Model: Why Stability Wins in South America

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Executive Summary While Brazil confronts democratic backsliding concerns, Argentina cycles through economic crises, and Chile faces constitutional upheaval, Uruguay maintains steady governance that approaches European institutional standards. The country’s $22,000 per capita GDP and 79.2/100 institutional quality score create a regional stability premium demonstrating the compounding returns of pragmatic governance and democratic continuity. However, small … Read more