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Development Finance

Screening a US AI Export Package in Week One: Nine Questions, Tested on Kenya

October 8, 2026September 30, 2026 by Walter Guevara
Designation is not a financing decision: the Kenya public-evidence test, with no designation confirmed, has three stop signs, with buyer and power unanswered and no public evidence for a risk-bearer; pass tests require a named buyer with documented repayment or funding capacity, a power purchase agreement or grid allocation, and a sovereign guarantee, creditworthy corporate offtaker or support mechanism. The nine-question screen pauses talks on one stop sign and returns the package on two or more; demand, tool, scale and owner need a dated recheck, while designation effect and clock require agency answers.

Designation is the start of a deal, not a step toward closing it. A nine-question early screen for a US AI export package, tested on the Microsoft and G42 data center announced for Kenya.

Categories AI Infrastructure & Sovereignty, Development Finance Tags American AI Exports Program, DFC, due diligence, EXIM, export finance, Kenya

EXIM Authority Expires December 31: A Plan for AI Export Packages

October 8, 2026September 30, 2026 by Walter Guevara
Proportional timeline for the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM), dated October 8, 2026: March 18 chairman request for 10 years, April 1-June 30 AI Exports Program call, June 15 introduction of S.4781 now in committee, October 8, December 31 authorization expiry and January 1, 2027 with no lapse plan found in the documents reviewed for designated packages. The 84-day October 8-December 31 window says close what can close and line up a fallback lender for the rest; renewal remains possible.

EXIM’s authority expires December 31, 2026. The government promises designated AI packages access to federal financing, but no public document covers a lapse.

Categories AI Infrastructure & Sovereignty, Development Finance Tags American AI Exports Program, CTEP, DFC, EXIM, export finance

Latin America’s AI-Minerals-Finance Triangle

September 23, 2026 by Walter Guevara
Triangle diagram linking Latin American critical minerals, sovereign AI programs, and development finance, with offtake, processing, and capital flows on the three edges.

Regional AI capacity, critical minerals leverage, and development finance are converging. Latin America is the test case: about 60 percent of lithium reserves, roughly a fifth of key minerals refined locally, and more than 180 sovereign AI projects across the region.

Categories AI Infrastructure & Sovereignty, Development Finance, Latin America

Permission Is the New Compute Bottleneck

September 18, 2026 by Walter Guevara
Diagram showing capital, chips, and power ready to deploy but blocked behind five permission gates: zoning, tariff, queue, water, and community.

FERC dockets, state tariffs, moratoriums and Texas’ audit show permission, not capital or chips, now sets the pace of the AI data center buildout.

Categories AI Infrastructure & Sovereignty, Development Finance

Sovereign AI Infrastructure Just Found Its Debt Market

September 18, 2026September 18, 2026 by Walter Guevara
Split diagram contrasting a $441 million J.P. Morgan-led debt facility for air-gapped government data centers with Mubadala's reported talks on a 500 megawatt AI campus in Akita, Japan.

Global AI closed a $441 million debt facility for sovereign data centers. Mubadala is weighing up to $7 billion for a Japanese AI campus. Sovereign compute is being financed like infrastructure now.

Categories AI Infrastructure & Sovereignty, Development Finance Tags AI Infrastructure, Data Centers, J.P. Morgan, Japan, Mubadala, Project Finance, Sovereign AI

How the World Bank Guarantee Engine Actually Works (And What MIGA Centralization Means for EM)

June 10, 2026 by Walter Guevara

The World Bank is centralizing its guarantee platform around MIGA. Here is what it means for EM sovereign borrowers before the G7 Summit at Evian.

Categories Development Finance Tags Development finance, G7, MDB Reform, MIGA, Political Risk Insurance, World Bank

BNDES Eco Invest Brasil: The Deep Tech Pivot

June 10, 2026 by Walter Guevara

BNDES’s 5th Auction pivots to SAF, green fertilizers, and AI automation. Here is how Brazil’s R blended finance structure works and why it matters for emerging markets.

Categories Development Finance Tags Blended Finance, BNDES, Brazil, Capital Stack Analysis, Climate Finance, Development finance, Emerging Markets

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