Analysis of institutional change, regulatory shifts, and policy signals across emerging markets. The latest signals, briefs, and frameworks from the Juncture research desk.
Key Takeaways Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was running at 35% utilization before the Hormuz crisis — leaving 4.5 million b/d of theoretical bypass capacity effectively dormant Goldman Sachs estimated only ~900,000 b/d was actually rerouted in the first four days of disruption, against a theoretical ceiling of 3.6 million b/d on the Saudi line alone … Read more
The Subsidy Trap No Bond Desk Has Priced Kenya’s Finance Minister John Mbadi received two sets of numbers on the same morning last week that together defined an impossible choice. The first: urea at U.S. Gulf ports had jumped from roughly $470 per metric ton to $640-700 within 72 hours of the February 28 strikes … Read more
The $300 Billion Question A Chevron strategic planning team convened an emergency meeting January 4, hours after President Trump announced Nicolás Maduro’s capture. Their Venezuela license—expanded in October 2023 to 200,000 barrels per day—now faces radical uncertainty. If Vice President Delcy Rodríguez consolidates power, the license stays capped and sanctions persist indefinitely. If the military … Read more
Monroe Doctrine 2.0 Meets Economic Reality in Latin America Secretary of State Marco Rubio stared at the intelligence brief. Argentina’s Javier Milei—Trump’s ideological soulmate who campaigned on dismantling ties with Beijing—had just quietly extended Argentina’s $5 billion currency swap with China. Three days earlier, on December 5, Rubio’s own National Security Strategy had declared a … Read more
Juncture Policy Brief | November 20, 2025 | 15-min read Executive Summary When Colombia’s finance minister chose a $2 billion grid financing from a private equity–backed insurer over cheaper Chinese and DFI options, the decision wasn’t about a few basis points on the coupon. It was about speed, balance sheet optics, and political timelines. The … Read more
By Juncture Policy | October 13, 2025 | Updated November 15, 2025 Dutch Economic Minister Vincent Karremans faced a choice that would have triggered international sanctions if made by a developing country leader: invoke emergency powers to seize operational control of a foreign-owned semiconductor company. On October 13, 2025, he did exactly that—taking control of … Read more
Indonesia’s investment coordination team faces a critical Q1 2025 decision. Samsung and LG are among several major electronics manufacturers allocating billions for Southeast Asian battery component facilities, and both Jakarta and New Delhi are competing aggressively for anchor investments in this wave. The challenge isn’t just offering competitive incentives—it’s demonstrating that Indonesia possesses the institutional … Read more
Policy Brief By Juncture Policy ResearchOctober 12, 2025 Following the October 10, 2025 impeachment of Dina Boluarte, José Jerí was sworn in as Peru’s seventh president since 2018, facing an immediate investor relations problem at 12:47 AM. His predecessor governed with a 4% approval rating. According to Peru’s National Police, reported extortion cases rose more … Read more
Policy Brief | Reading Time: 7 minutes Author: Walter Guevara Update (November 12, 2025) Since this analysis was published, events have validated rather than contradicted our framework. The IMF approved Argentina’s $20 billion Extended Fund Facility in April 2025 with $12 billion immediate disbursement. Mid-year reviews documented “rapid disinflation, solid economic recovery, and incipient improvements … Read more
Executive Summary Peru’s decade-long educational reform cycle—from ambitious implementation (2014-2015) to recent reversals (2024-2025)—offers critical insights into the sustainability challenges facing structural reforms in emerging markets. Despite initial technical success, the collapse of supporting political coalitions has undermined transformative changes in higher education quality standards and teacher career frameworks. This case illuminates the fundamental tension … Read more