Analysis

Analysis of institutional change, regulatory shifts, and policy signals across emerging markets. The latest signals, briefs, and frameworks from the Juncture research desk.

Peru’s Education Reform Reversals: Lessons for Institutional Sustainability

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Executive Summary Peru’s decade-long educational reform cycle—from ambitious implementation (2014-2015) to recent reversals (2024-2025)—offers critical insights into the sustainability challenges facing structural reforms in emerging markets. Despite initial technical success, the collapse of supporting political coalitions has undermined transformative changes in higher education quality standards and teacher career frameworks. This case illuminates the fundamental tension … Read more

Mexico’s Strategic Protectionist Gambit: A Calculated USMCA Play

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Executive Summary Mexico is implementing its most significant protectionist shift in four decades, imposing tariffs up to 50% on 1,463 product categories worth $52 billion in annual imports. This calculated policy targets Chinese manufacturing while positioning Mexico strategically for the 2026 USMCA review—a high-stakes gambit that fundamentally restructures North American trade dynamics. Key Takeaways: Legislative … Read more

Uruguay’s Quiet Model: Why Stability Wins in South America

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Executive Summary While Brazil confronts democratic backsliding concerns, Argentina cycles through economic crises, and Chile faces constitutional upheaval, Uruguay maintains steady governance that approaches European institutional standards. The country’s $22,000 per capita GDP and 79.2/100 institutional quality score create a regional stability premium demonstrating the compounding returns of pragmatic governance and democratic continuity. However, small … Read more